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FEBRUARY 3,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

JIMMY ENDORSES, IN A WAY – From London's Daily Mirror:   Former US President Jimmy Carter tonight told the UK Parliament he wants Donald Trump to land the Republican nomination ahead of frontrunner Ted Cruz .  Speaking on a visit to Britain, the 91-year-old Democrat warned Mr Cruz is committed to “Far Right-wing politics” which he would pursue “aggressively” if he makes it to the White House.  By contrast, Carter said, outspoken billionaire Mr Trump has no fixed views at all.  “If I had a choice of Republican nominees, between Cruz and Trump, I think I would choose. Trump - which may surprise some of you,” he told an audience in the House of Lords.  I'm sure Donald will describe this endorsement as HUGE.  It ain't.

OBAMA TAKES A RIDE – From Mediaite:  Today, President Barack Obama made the first appearance at a U.S. mosque in his seven-year presidency. He and the Council on American-Islamic Relations selected the Islamic Society of Baltimore for the big event. He made some valid points and included some touching moments, but detractors are continuing to rail against his choice of mosques.  In 2010, the Islamic Society of Baltimore was placed under FBI surveillance following the arrest of one of its members. The member had been planning to bomb an Army recruiting center near the mosque in Catonsville.  As the late Gilda Radner put it, "It's always something."

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP – From The Politico:  Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize.  The billionaire presidential candidate, whose controversial comments and hard-edged policy proposals have upset many, was nominated for: "his vigorous peace through strength ideology, used as a threat weapon of deterrence against radical Islam, ISIS, nuclear Iran and Communist China,” according to a copy of the nomination letter obtained by the Peace Research Institute in Oslo, Norway. According to PRIO, Trump was nominated by an American.  Considering the standards of the Nobel Peace Prize, he'll probably be one of the top contenders.

February 3, 2016       Permalink

AND IN THE REST OF THE WORLD – AT 6:44 P.M. ET:   We forget that there's big stuff going on outside Iowa and New Hampshire.  A good part of the world is in chaos.  The Mideast is in flames.  Asia is becoming unstable and threatening.  The president visited a Baltimore mosque today to tell the parishioners how much he loved them. 

North Korea is becoming increasingly defiant in one of the most volatile parts of the globe.  From AP:

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korea warned on Wednesday of "searing" consequences if North Korea doesn't abandon plans to launch a long-range rocket that critics call a banned test of ballistic missile technology.

The South's rhetoric about unspecified harsh consequences comes less than a month after North Korea's defiant fourth nuclear test and as diplomats at the U.N. work on strong new sanctions against the North.

North Korea on Tuesday informed international organizations of its plans to launch an Earth observation satellite on a rocket between Feb. 8 and 25, and if North Korea's past patterns are any clue, angry warnings by its neighbors and Washington probably won't dissuade a coming launch.

The launch declaration, which is meant to warn civilians, shipping and aircraft in the area about the rocket and falling debris, follows North Korea's disputed claim on Jan. 6 to have tested a hydrogen bomb, the country's fourth nuclear test. A launch would be seen as a snub by North Korea of its only major ally, China, whose representative for Korean affairs landed in the North for talks on Tuesday.

South Korean and U.S. officials said the launch would threaten regional security and violate U.N. Security Council resolutions that ban the country from engaging in any ballistic activities.

"We warn that if North Korea proceeds with a long-range missile launch, the international society will ensure that the North pays searing consequences for it as the launch would constitute a grave threat to the Korean Peninsula, the region and the world," senior South Korean presidential official Cho Tae-yong said in televised remarks.

COMMENT:  Why should North Korea heed any warnings?  Why would they be afraid of Field Marshal Obama or Grand Admiral Kerry?

America's allies must feel very alone.

February 3, 2016       Permalink 

HILLARY'S PROBLEMS – AT 10:41 A.M. ET:  As the old Soviets used to phrase it, it is no secret that Hillary Clinton is having problems.  Bernie Sanders, an aging socialist from a tiny state, is actually running strongly against her.

One of the reasons, of course, is that the Democratic Party under Barack Obama, another socialist (who won't admit it) has lurched further and further to the left.  But another reason is that Hillary Clinton isn't a very good candidate.  Veteran political journalist Bob Woodward explains.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Veteran investigative journalist Bob Woodward on Wednesday said a likely reason Hillary Clinton lost young voters in Iowa to her main Democratic rival is because she has a harsh tone that comes across as insecure.

"I think a lot of it with Hillary Clinton has to do with style and delivery, oddly enough," Woodward said on MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "She shouts. There is something unrelaxed about the way she is communicating."

Show co-host Joe Scarborough agreed.

"Last night I was watching her and I said to myself, has nobody told her that the microphone works because she always keeps it up here," Scarborough said.

"I'm sorry to dwell on the tone issue, but there's something here where Hillary Clinton suggests she's almost not comfortable with herself," Woodward said. "And, you know, self acceptance is something you communicate on television."

COMMENT:  Absolutely true.  Style counts in politics, and Hillary too often appears the class scold who yearns for the 1960s.   You get the feeling she'll take away your dinner and send you to bed.

Our side has its own problems.  Neither Trump nor Cruz comes off as Mr. Warmth.  But Hillary, by now, should know better. 

February 3, 2016       Permalink

MARCO'S TIME? – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Well, maybe.  This is such an unusual year that predictions are out of order.  But Rubio's strength in Iowa gives him the opportunity to capitalize and move up. 

The New Hampshire polls aren't promising.  Trump still retains a huge lead.  But all Rubio has to do is gain dramatically in the last week to show that he is the one on the move.   It's reported that he has a good ground game going in South Carolina.  He has the support there of U.S. Senator Tim Scott, an African-American, and Congressman Trey Gowdy. 

As more Republicans drop out of the race, the focus will be on the anti-Trumps, Cruz and Rubio.  Many feel that Rubio, by sheer attractiveness of personality, is the more electable.  We'll see.  From The Politico: 

DES MOINES, Iowa — With his strong showing in the caucuses here, Marco Rubio is growing closer to consolidating the establishment wing of the Republican Party — and tightening the noose around the necks of his mainstream GOP rivals, including Jeb Bush.

Rubio’s third-place finish, top party officials, donors and strategists said on Tuesday, positioned him to take the establishment mantle and win over Republican leaders who are eager to coalesce around a single candidate and halt insurgents Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. His foes, conceding that time was growing short to demonstrate strength, spent the day in private strategy sessions where they plotted how to prevent powerful supporters from bolting.

“Marco Rubio controls his own destiny for the first time in this campaign,” said Josh Holmes, a former chief of staff to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. “If he performs in New Hampshire, it is very difficult to see how his campaign won’t quickly consolidate a lot of support.”

With the GOP hierarchy warming to Rubio, the squeeze is suddenly on struggling establishment contenders Chris Christie, John Kasich and Bush, who must convince party higher-ups that they have a reason to continue on. On Tuesday morning, top Bush donors and finance officials held two conference calls to discuss the path forward. On one, according to one participant, there was an acknowledgement of the campaign’s increasingly long odds and an agreement that, barring a strong Bush showing in New Hampshire, many Bush donors would soon bolt to Rubio.

COMMENT:  February and March are the crucial months.  I would not be shocked to see a three-way race come March 31st – Trump, Cruz, Rubio.  Nor would I be shocked to see Trump start to falter.  I sense that many are becoming tired of his insult game, and even he acknowledges that refusing to attend the last debate in Iowa may have been a major blunder.

Also, when it comes to getting into the details of issues, Trump is simply weak.  In a real debate over issues, he'd be creamed by either Cruz or Rubio...or Hillary. 

This is very exciting stuff.

February 3, 2016       Permalink

PAUL IS OUT – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  Rand Paul has suspended his presidential campaign.  At one time it was believed he could be a major factor, appealing to the libertarian wing of the party. 

But Paul foundered on foreign policy.  Even though he denies it, he comes off as a neo-isolationist, and Republicans have, for decades, been the national-defense party.  They are the heirs, ironically, to the national-defense Democrats, like Henry Jackson and Joe Lieberman, who were wiped out by their own party and sent packing.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul announced Wednesday that he is ending his 2016 presidential bid, and will focus on his reelection bid for Senate.

"It has been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House. Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing fight for the cause of Liberty," Paul said in a statement.

"Across the country thousands upon thousands of young people flocked to our message of limited government, privacy, criminal justice reform and a reasonable foreign policy," Paul continued. "Brushfires of liberty were ignited, and those will carry on, as will I."

"Although today I will suspend my campaign for president, the fight is far from over. I will continue to carry the torch for liberty in the United States Senate and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term."

COMMENT:  I hope that Rand, a talented man, can grow with the years.  I was no fan of his father, Ron Paul, who too often toyed with the fires of bigotry.  Rand has not. 

The field is thinning.  Mike Huckabee has also suspended.  I hope others follow, and we can get serious about selecting a nominee.  Four candidates on that debate stage will be quite enough.

February 3,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 2,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

ANOTHER GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – From Fox:   A Georgia police officer taking classes in his spare time got an unwanted lesson from a college instructor last week, but now it is the school that is feeling blue – and apologizing.  The unidentified cop was wearing his uniform and carrying his service gun when the Darton State College instructor reportedly became uncomfortable with his presence, according to WALB-TV. School officials confirmed the police officer was escorted out of the classroom, but did not elaborate.  "Darton State College is appreciative for the service of our law enforcement, and welcome them as students on our campus,” Interim Provost and Vice President for Academic and Student Affairs Thomas Ormand said in a statement. “We have apologized to the officer for our misunderstanding when he attended class on our campus, and we regret this happened."  At least someone apologized.  But you wonder about the maturity and judgment of the "instructor."  The instructor needs some instructing.

IT'S COME TO THIS – From AP:   WASHINGTON (AP) -- They say crime doesn't pay, but that might not be entirely true in the District of Columbia as lawmakers look for ways to discourage people from becoming repeat offenders.  The D.C. Council voted unanimously Tuesday to approve a bill that includes a proposal to pay residents a stipend not to commit crimes. It's based on a program in Richmond, California, that advocates say has contributed to deep reductions in crime there.  Under the bill, city officials would identify up to 200 people a year who are considered at risk of either committing or becoming victims of violent crime. Those people would be directed to participate in behavioral therapy and other programs. If they fulfill those obligations and stay out of trouble, they would be paid.  The bill doesn't specify the value of the stipends, but participants in the California program receive up to $9,000 per year.  We could go further and pay members of the Obama administration not to show up for work.  The country would improve overnight.

PULLING A TRUMP – Bernie Sanders' campaign says he won't participate in Thursday's planned Democratic presidential debate unless Hillary Clinton agrees to the Sanders campaign's conditions on future debates.  "We are continuing to negotiate with them not just about the debate Thursday night, but about the other debates that we have said need to be agreed to in order to put the whole package of debates together," Tad Devine, a top Sanders campaign official, told The Hill.  "They have not agreed to at least one aspect of it, which is we've asked for a debate in New York, and they do not want to have a debate in New York."
Clinton is urging Sanders to debate her in New Hampshire this week, saying the campaign has met the conditions.   Bernie is starting to sound just like the rest of them.  Pretty soon he'll be saying that his campaign is HUGE, JUST HUGE. 

ISN'T THIS WHAT WE WERE SUPPOSED TO BE AGAINST? – From Fox:   Faced with alarmingly low graduation rates for black males, the University of Connecticut is trying something it calls bold -- and critics call segregation.  The school's main campus in Storrs has launched a program slated for fall in which 40 black male undergraduates live together in on-campus housing. Proponents believe the students can draw on their common experiences and help each other make it to commencement. But others cringe at the idea of black-only housing, saying it turns decades of hard-fought racial progress on its head.  “Forget about this nonsense and just treat students without regard to skin color,” President and General Counsel of the Center for Equal Opportunity Roger Clegg told Insidehighered.com. “If there are students of color who are at risk or who could use some access to special programs, that’s fine, but schools shouldn’t be using race as a proxy for who’s at risk and who’s going to have a hard time as a student. There are lots of African-American students who come from advantaged backgrounds. And lots of non-African-American students who come from disadvantaged backgrounds.”  You can be sure that this segregated dorm will quickly fall under the control of leftists and racialists.  The students will be radicalized, but educated is another story.

February 2, 2016       Permalink

THE REAL ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM – 11:21 A.M. ET:  The real elephant in the room.  From the Washington Examiner:   

The national debt hit $19 trillion for the first time ever on Friday, and came in at $19.012 trillion.

It took a little more than 13 months for the debt to climb by $1 trillion. The national debt hit $18 trillion on Dec. 15, 2014.

That's a slightly stepped-up pace compared to the last few $1 trillion mileposts. It took about 14 months for the debt to climb from $17 trillion to $18 trillion, and about the same amount of time to go from $16 trillion to $17 trillion.

The federal government has been free to borrow as much as needed for the last several years. Years ago, Congress passed legislation to increase the debt ceiling to a certain level of debt, and borrowing had to stop once that limit was hit.

But increasingly, Congress has instead allowed more borrowing by suspending the debt ceiling for long periods of time. That allows the government to borrow any amount it needs until the suspension period ends.

Back in November, the debt ceiling was suspended again, after having been frozen at $18.1 trillion for several months. As soon as it was suspended, months of pent-up borrowing demand by the government led to a $339 billion jump in the national debt in a single day.

COMMENT:  This could eventually destroy us, or place our economy under the effective control of foreign nations that lend us money.   Both parties are to blame.  I don't see any way to cure this disease unless our economy vastly expands, and tax revenues increase accordingly.

February 2, 2016       Permalink

HMMM – ELIZABETH THE SPHYNX – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:   Watch Elizabeth Warren carefully.  She's one of the most popular figures in the Democratic Party, with almost all of her power centered in the party's dominant left wing.  From The Hill: 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said Monday that she has no intention of backing a contender in the Democratic presidential primary just yet.

“No endorsements now,” she said before Iowa’s first-the-nation caucuses that night, according to MassLive.com.

“We’ll see,” the progressive lawmaker added when asked if she would announce a pick following contest’s results.

Warren also praised the Democratic presidential field for conducting a policy-oriented race in comparison to their GOP counterparts.

“I think that what the Democrats are doing is terrific,” she said. "We’re out talking about the issues. I look at the Republican debates and the difference between what they’re doing and what the Democrats are doing that really shows who’s on whose side.”

Warren then refused comment on whether Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton’s past ties with Wall Street trouble her.

“[I have] concerns about everybody’s relationships with Wall Street,” she said in Springfield, Mass. "This is a rigged game and it’s rigged because Wall Street makes sure that in every decision that gets made they’re there. They make sure they’ve got their lobbyists and their lawyers so that everything tilts just a little more in their direction. This is what I’m fighting every day in the United States Senate.”

Warren has notably remained silent on who she supports for her party’s presidential nomination. She has refrained from picking fellow progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), but remains the only female senator who has not backed Clinton either.

COMMENT:  Ah, the only female senator (the writer of the piece meant the only female Democratic senator) not to back Clinton.  I wonder why.  What is Warren planning? 

We've been noting that Joe Biden seems ready to step into the race should Hillary be brought down by the FBI investigation into her behavior at the State Department.  To pacify the left, Biden, often seen as a traditional liberal, could easily choose Warren.

Or...Warren, with Hillary rubbed out, could make a run for it herself.  Or be a compromise candidate if no one goes to the convention with enough votes to win.

I don't know what her strategy is...but I do know that it's all about Liz.

February 2, 2016       Permalink 

THE RESULT – QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  Iowa is over, and it turned out to be remarkably exciting.  This morning the Democratic powers declared Hillary Clinton the winner over Bernie Sanders by the narrowest of margins.  Bernie, as we've noted, will win next week in New Hampshire, where he is well known.  His trouble starts after that, when the primaries move South and the electorate becomes more representative of the Democratic Party.

Ted Cruz, who actually led in the Iowa race earlier, ultimately won a respectable four-point victory over Donald Trump, suggesting that Trump's decision last week to skip the Fox News debate may well have cost him dearly.  One commentator pointed out that many Iowans make up their minds late in the race.  But the real news last night on the GOP side was the rise of Marco Rubio, who came in third at 23% to Trump's second at 24%.  Rubio is now a major factor.

Which brings us to the optics:  Trump's concession to Cruz was gracious, which proves he can act civilized when he wants to.  Rubio's speech was brilliant and elegant.  But winner Ted Cruz's was not, as noted by Powerline's Scott Johnson in our quote of the day:

I think Cruz flubbed the opportunity presented by his victory speech. Rubio went first, while the viewing audience must have been near its peak during prime time, and gave a winning speech. I thought it effectively advertised Rubio’s strengths as a potential general election candidate. It was the best speech by a loser since Bill Clinton’s “comeback kid” deal the night of the 1992 New Hampshire primary, when Clinton came in second to Paul Tsongas, but that’s unfair; it was much better than that. In its critique of Hillary Clinton, Rubio’s speech was powerful; it was hard-hitting; it had the additional advantage of being true. By contrast, Cruz’s victory speech was overlong and flat. It seemed to me to advertise his weaknesses as a potential general election candidate.

And that will be a major talking point, and a key factor in Rubio's campaign to topple Cruz and Trump.  Rubio's ace is that he can take on Hillary and win.  Cruz and Trump both have stylistic flaws that can sink them.  The Cruz campaign is known for its smarts, and is probably reviewing Cruz's blunder carefully.  In effect, Cruz threw away a part of his victory by a dull, wordy speech with over-the-top gesturing.  I'd imagine he'll be better next time.  He has to be.

February 2,  2016     Permalink